As the NBA Playoffs Near, Oddsmakers Favor Warriors Over Rockets — But Should They?

One of the more surprising storylines heading into the 2025 NBA playoffs is the betting market favoring the No. 7 seed Golden State Warriors over the No. 2 seed Houston Rockets.

On a recent episode of The Kevin O’Connor Show, host Kevin O'Connor and guest Esfandiar Baraheni broke down the matchup — and why oddsmakers have the Warriors as -190 favorites at BetMGM despite their lower seed.

Why the Warriors Are Favored

Golden State's playoff experience, the clutch brilliance of Steph Curry, and their midseason acquisition of Jimmy Butler have boosted their postseason stock. The Warriors also boast an improved defense and a reputation for closing tight games.

“You have a guy [Curry] you can rely on every time,” said O’Connor. “This feels like one of those series where every game comes down to the wire.”

Houston’s Case: Defense, Depth, and Matchups

Baraheni pushed back on the odds, pointing to Houston's strong regular-season performance against Golden State and its elite defense. With interior size in Alperen Şengün and Steven Adams, and perimeter stoppers like Amen Thompson, Dillon Brooks, and Fred VanVleet, the Rockets could pose real problems.

Baraheni highlighted Thompson’s defensive success against Curry and the Rockets’ ability to support their bigs on switches. O’Connor also noted the Rockets’ rebounding edge: “The Şengün/Adams lineups work because they generate second chances by crashing the glass.”

The X-Factor: Experience in the Clutch

Ultimately, experience and shot creation in crunch time could decide the series. Golden State has been elite in late-game situations, while Houston has sometimes struggled to generate consistent offense in the fourth quarter.

“I just trust Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler more than I do Jalen Green, Şengün, or VanVleet,” said O’Connor.

Prediction: A Toss-Up Series

Despite the odds, both O’Connor and Baraheni expect a close series. O’Connor picks the Warriors in seven, while Baraheni leans Rockets in six. Both agree: the Rockets are being underestimated.

“People are discrediting the Rockets a little too much,” O’Connor concluded.